Energy and Precious Metals Commentaries

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02/06/12--06:47: Gold Prices Decline Further as "Crunch Time" Arrives for Greece, But Gold "Now More of a Safe Haven" than in Nov. and Dec. (chan 1721815)

Gold Prices continued to fall Monday morning in London, hitting $1713 per ounce by lunchtime - 2.8% down on last week's high - as stocks and commodities also ticked lower, while US Treasury bonds gained. Silver Prices dropped to $33.09 per ounce - 3.9% down on the high from last week - as uncertainty grew over the long-running Greek debt issue. Gold Prices began their downward move on Friday following the publication of better-than-expected US nonfarm jobs data. Stock markets by contrast rallied immediately following the release.


02/06/12--18:12: Greece Talks Extended, Euro Holding above 1.3000, RBA Today (chan 1721815)

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold fell back for a second day as the market continued to liquidate long positions searching for support eventually found under $1720. OIL/USD pivoted the $97 but the selling has stopped seen last week as the energy fell below $100.


02/07/12--00:29: Gold To Gain Strength Ahead Of The Results Of The Greek Debt-Talks With Creditors (chan 1721815)

With the start of another session gold is biased to the upside today, attempting to recover the losses incurred yesterday, where the metal retreated sharply after fluctuating heavily yesterday, affected by the volatile low yielding U.S. dollar; however, today the metal rebounded slightly as investors hold more gold as a hedge against uncertainty ahead of the results of the Greek debt-talks with creditors.


02/07/12--01:04: Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market (chan 1721815)

Volatility is the status for crude oil amid high uncertainty in Europe, derived by no agreement so far between the three major parties in Greece that should approve new austerity measure in order to access the second bailout by 130 billion Euros from the Troika, where lack of important fundamentals are driving volatility as well, keeping the focus on Greece.


02/07/12--05:27: Gold Prices Hit 2-Week Low with Greece "On Edge of Default" and Athenians "Burning German Flag" (chan 1721815)

Gold Prices fell to a 2-week low of $1711 per ounce Tuesday lunchtime in London, with stocks, industrial commodities and the Euro also trading lower amid uncertainty over whether Greece is headed for default. Silver Prices dropped to $33.20 per ounce - down 1.6% on the start of the week. "The $33.00 level [is proving] to be strong support," says the latest technical analysis note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta. Gold Prices Tuesday lunchtime remained more than 3% above where they were on January 25, the day the US Federal Reserve revealed its policymakers expect near-zero interest rates to persist until at least the end of 2014.


02/07/12--06:50: Cuts, Gluts and Nuts (chan 1721815)

The Brent crude versus WTI spread has blown out to the highest levels since last October surging over $20 on a combination of gluts, cuts and nuts. As US refiners go into hibernation against a backdrop of weak demand, supplies in the US continue to rise. Refiners are cutting runs dramatically at a time when we are seeing rising Canadian oil sand production as well as shale liquids that is creating a glut of crude that seems to be getting more glutinous by the minute! Weak refining margins and the approaching shoulder season is weighing on the West Texas Intermediate.


02/08/12--05:46: Gold Bullion Steady as Dollar Falls, Job Market "Still Not Normal" says Bernanke, Bank of England "Could Do £50bn" Extra QE (chan 1721815)

Gold Bullion prices held steady just below $1750 per ounce Wednesday morning - 2.2% up on yesterday's low - after rallying the previous day following comments from US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke. Silver Bullion eased slightly this morning after hitting $34.55 per ounce - its highest level since November 16. "Gold faces significant resistance at $1766, but above that look for $1778-1798," says one Gold Bullion dealer here in London. The S&P 500 hit its highest level in over six months Tuesday at 1349.24 - 25% up on last October's low. Gold Bullion meantime is up 9.6% over the same period.


02/08/12--06:20: A Better Future for Price Predictions (chan 1721815)

The Energy Information Agency came out with their latest Short Term Energy Outlook and I was glad to see that they are using the futures markets to improve their market forecasts. While the EIA has done a phenomenal job in the past providing the industry and traders with valuable information, it seemed that their price projections were always a bit behind the curve. More often than not, especially during the days of the strong bull petroleum market, it seemed that the Energy Information Agency was always playing a bit of catch up.


02/09/12--00:49: Gold To Surge Ahead Of The ECB, BoE Rate Decisions (chan 1721815)

Gold started the session today biased to the upside, where investors after the decline seen yesterday, returned to demand more of the shiny metal as a hedge against uncertainty ahead of the critical European Central Bank and Bank of England rate decisions, with expectations both banks will leave rates unchanged at 1.0% and 0.5% respectively as policy makers attempt to spur growth further, especially when inflation started to retreat.


02/09/12--00:50: Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market (chan 1721815)

Crude oil struggles amid mixed sentiment in Europe and rising demand in the world’s biggest oil consumer, as Europe remain stuck and waiting for final agreement in Greece’s problem which been delayed for another day.


02/09/12--06:14: Gold Price "Will Easily Hit $2000" on Central-Bank Liquidity, BoE Repeats "Desperate Shot in the Dark" of Quantitative Easing (chan 1721815)

The Gold Price slipped $10 per ounce to $1730 in London trade Thursday morning, before regaining most of that dip as the European Central Bank kept its key lending rate on hold and the Bank of England extended its purchases of UK government bonds to £325 billion ($515bn). On completion, this Quantitative Easing will see the Bank owning nearly one-third of the UK's outstanding national debt.


02/09/12--06:46: Refineries Were Born To Run (chan 1721815)

Every day we sweat the gas price out on the streets of a runaway American dream, at night we ride through at the mercy and glory of these refining machines. Prices are rising out on highway 9, chrome wheeled, fuel injected, and prices continue to climb. Oh, baby this gas rips the bones from your back. It's a death trap, it's a suicide rap. We gotta get out while we're young. `Cause tramps like us, refineries were born to run.


02/10/12--00:57: Gold Declines As Inflation Eases And The U.S. Dollar Gains Momentum Gold Declines As Inflation Ease (chan 1721815)

With the start of the last session this week, volatility and heavy fluctuation dominate the market; however, the shiny metal retreats sharply affected by the strengthening U.S. dollar, which forces downside pressures on the metals in general, and also affected by the eased inflation, which reflected negative demand for the shiny metal, which is have been held for years as a hedge against inflation since the metal is believed not to lose value over time.


02/10/12--01:13: Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market (chan 1721815)

Crude oil declines today after yesterday's gains which caused by hopes in Europe amid central banks actions to support growth, and an initial agreement from Greece's parties on measures that would secure a 130 billion Euros bailout, but unfortunately it failed to convince EU which called the negative picture back.


02/10/12--07:40: Can You Cut Enough? (chan 1721815)

Natural Gas prices were able to shake off a bearish injection report after Chesapeake put the commodity bears on notice that indeed more production cuts could be coming. The Energy Information Administration broke a string of bearing more bullish than estimates by reporting that working gas in storage was 2,888 Bcf, a net decline of 78 Bcf from the previous week. Yet despite the fact we are swimming in supply, the Chesapeake talk kept the market from collapsing. That is a pretty impressive achievement considering the fact that supply was 714 bcf higher than last year at this time and 714 bcf above the 5-year average. In fact the EIA says that the amount of U.S. working natural gas in underground storage at the end of March, 2012 is expected to be the highest since 1983 for the close of the month, the traditional end of the winter heating season.


02/10/12--07:41: Gold Prices Fall After "Weak" Greek Reforms Rejected, ECB Money "Has No Stigma" says Draghi (chan 1721815)

Gold Prices were heading for their second weekly fall Friday lunchtime in London, as they drifted down towards $1700 per ounce following European ministers' rejection yesterday of the latest austerity proposals from Greece. Silver Prices also traded lower, hitting $33.27 per ounce – 1.4% down on last week's close. Stocks, commodities and the Euro all fell, while the Dollar gained along with prices for major nation government bonds.


02/10/12--09:04: Commodities Mixed: Energy Benefits from Cold, Gold Waiting for Next Theme (chan 1721815)

The Greek bailout package that should have been put in place by now continues to attract attention across financial markets. All week the talk about an imminent agreement helped support stocks and drove the dollar to the lowest level in two months. Sentiment turned late Thursday, after Eurogroup sent the Greek delegation back to Athens demanding additional cuts and reassurances, something that looks increasingly unlikely to happen.


02/13/12--01:27: Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market (chan 1721815)

Crude oil rose since the opening of today's session supported by optimism that spread cross financial markets as Greek politicians agreed on austerity plan that would secure a 130 billion Euros for the country in the second bailout, where the commodity is struggling around the physiological level at $100.


02/13/12--01:29: Gold Gains Momentum On Eased Fears Over Greece (chan 1721815)

Another week started today; however this time optimism dominates the market as Greek lawmakers have finally reached to an agreement on the further austerity needed to avoid a catastrophic default, where the shiny metal rebounded to the upside after the U.S. dollar eased as few investors hold the low yielding currency now for risk aversion.


02/13/12--06:23: Gold Prices Gain as "Dollar Weakness Boosts Demand" after Greek Deal, Project Merlin "Failing" British Small Business (chan 1721815)

Dollar Gold Prices hit $1733 per ounce Monday morning - 0.5% up on Friday's close - as stocks, commodities and the Euro also gained following the Greek parliament's vote in favor of an austerity deal. Silver Prices meantime hovered around $33.90 per ounce - 0.8% up on the end of last week - while government bond prices dipped and the Dollar fell on the currency markets. "The weakness in the Dollar...creates a bit of demand for gold," reckons Bernard Sin, head of currency and metal dealing at Swiss precious metals refiner MKS.


02/14/12--00:58: Gold Declines After The Several Credit Rating Cuts In Europe (chan 1721815)

Gold returned to decline again despite the expected upside move yesterday, where the metal reversed sharply to the downside yesterday, cutting all the gains recorded earlier after Moody's Investor Services cut the credit rating of six European nations and placed other three rankings under negative outlook, which spread pessimism in the market and supported the U.S. dollar to gain momentum, and in result forced downside pressures on the metals to trade lower.


02/14/12--01:31: Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market (chan 1721815)

Crude oil continued yesterday's rally as it reached $101 levels amid hopes in Europe and the bank of Japan's unexpected move which encouraged financial markets, as the bank increased its asset purchase program by 10 trillion Yen in a way to help and support the economy, which pushed the commodity sharply upwards.


02/14/12--06:14: Physical Demand "Supporting Gold Price" in "Sideways Trading", UK Gets Debt "Reality Check", Obama Calls for More Spending (chan 1721815)

The Dollar Gold Price dipped to $1713 per ounce Tuesday lunchtime - 1.1% down on the previous day's high - while stocks and commodities were broadly flat despite much of Europe being hit by ratings downgrades and warnings. The Silver Price dipped to $33.37 per ounce - a 0.8% fall on last week's close. Following falls Tuesday's Asian session, the Gold Price rallied in early London trading, at one point touching $1721 per ounce. "Physical demand continues to place a floor on prices," reckons Standard Bank commodities strategist Marc Ground, who expects the Gold Price "to continue tracking Euro/Dollar movements today".


02/14/12--06:15: Not Showing Any Love (chan 1721815)

Moody's did not exactly send a Valentine to the global markets yesterday. Downgrades across Europe is putting deflationary pressure on the metals but oil seems to be getting support from increasing geopolitical tension. With Moody's getting moody, they cut the ratings of Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain and lowered the outlook for eps Austria, France and the U.K. It seems that deflationary pressures are rising across Europe and perhaps the globe. We are seeing markets like copper, cocoa and precious metals fall but oil seems to be getting support from news of an attack on the Israeli embassy in New Delhi, India and an attempt in Tbilisi, Georgia. Israel blamed the attacks on Iran but Iran denied any involvement.


02/15/12--00:11: Gold To Gain Ahead Of The Critical Fundamentals From Europe (chan 1721815)

Gold started the session today biased to the upside, where the metal is demanded heavily as a hedge against uncertainty ahead of the critical fundamentals from Europe, where all the focus will be on the gross domestic product figures from the euro zone, and the unemployment report from the United Kingdom.


02/15/12--01:26: Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market (chan 1721815)

Crude oil continued its upside journey which begun two days ago amid hopes in Europe and fears over global oil supplies, as many positive factors are keeping crude on high levels despite the slow motion of EU leaders’ actions to give Greece the second bailout.


02/15/12--06:38: Gold Prices "Still Supported by Eurozone Crisis" as German Doubts Grow over Greek Bailout (chan 1721815)

Gold Prices rose to $1732 per ounce Wednesday lunchtime in London, slightly above where they started the week, as European stock markets dipped amid ongoing uncertainty over Greece's second bailout. Silver Prices tested $34 per ounce - 1% above last Friday's close. "Critical support [for Gold Prices ] is in the $1706 area and we would be bearish if this level fails to hold," says the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta. "Resistance is last week's high around $1752."


02/16/12--00:30: Gold To Decline As Pessimism Spread On Downgrade Threats And Another Greek Delay (chan 1721815)

With the start of the session today, pessimism dominated the market after the downbeat announcement made by Moody's, which threatened global and local banks with a possible downgrade, reflecting negativity in the market and forcing downside pressures on precious metals to trade lower, especially when the strengthening U.S. dollar gained more momentum.


02/16/12--01:22: Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market (chan 1721815)

Crude oil falls today amid stronger dollar which weighed the commodity sharply, beating all other positive factors that pushing crude as US crude stockpiles unexpectedly dropped last week as EIA reported, but to be honest, crude oil is trading now in high levels which will make it difficult to push it even higher.


02/16/12--06:49: Ramping Up! (chan 1721815)

Iran may be ramping up the pressure on the global markets but US refiners seem to be rising to the occasion. According to data compiled from the Energy Information Administration, Dow Jones News points out that US refiners boosted crude-oil processing by 2.2% last week to a impressive 14.7 million barrels per day barrels day which was the highest level for the week since 2007.


02/16/12--06:50: Demand to Buy Gold Rising Amongst Central Banks, Asian Investors & US Consumers as Greek Euro-Exit Rumored Again (chan 1721815)

Prices to Buy Gold fell further Thursday lunchtime in London, dropping towards 3-week lows beneath $1710 per ounce as the Dollar rose following a raft of positive US data, which contrasted with fresh rumours of a Greek debt default or even Eurozone exit. The Moody's rating agency today warned it may downgrade the status of 17 global and 114 Eurozone banks and financial services firms. Wednesday's teleconference of European finance ministers concluded that Greece must submit itself to greater external oversight of taxes and spending if it is to receive further bail-out funds before the critical bond-repayment deadline in mid-March.


02/17/12--00:40: Precious Metals Advance, Statistics Show Demand For Gold At Record (chan 1721815)

Pessimism dominated the market yesterday after finance ministers delayed their decision on the Greek financial aid, where Greece has finally met the conditions required by international lenders and approved further austerity measures to obtain the bailout package worth 130 billion euros needed to avert a catastrophic default.


02/17/12--01:11: Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market (chan 1721815)

Crude oil climbed higher at the end of the week achieving new highs in several weeks, as today it continued this upside wave which begun at the start of the week to reach a little below $103, supported by optimism in Europe that ministers would sign off a bailout plan for Greece on Monday, and rising tensions between Iran and its enemies.


02/17/12--06:16: Price of Buying Gold Flat in "Quiet Session" ahead of Euro Meeting, ECB "Could Be Setting Dangerous Precedent" (chan 1721815)

The Dollar price of Buying Gold hovered just above $1730 per ounce throughout this morning's London trading, as speculation continued over whether a Greek bailout will be agreed next week. Prices for Buying Silver were also very flat - hovering above $33.50 per ounce - as were those for commodities and stocks ahead of President's Day in the US on Monday. "A quiet session," said one Hong Kong gold dealer this morning.


02/17/12--06:18: Greece is the Word (chan 1721815)

Greece solved the problem and they see the light! We gotta get long now and think, they got it right. There ain't no danger stocks can go too far if we start believing now that Greece can change who they are. Greece is the word! They think austerity won't cause some growing pains, Why don't they understand, It's just a crying shame, The cuts are lying only real is real, We start to find right now if Greece can live with the deal, Greece is the word. Greece is the word, is the word that you heard, does this latest plan have meaning?


02/20/12--00:36: Gold To Gain Due To Rising Uncertainty (chan 1721815)

With the start of this week the shiny metal returns to gain momentum, where we can see the metal advanced since the opening in Asia, supported by demand as a hedge against uncertainty, where investors and markets in general are still waiting the euro-zone finance ministers' negotiations over Greece to end as time is running out and the nation approaches default.


02/20/12--01:27: Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market (chan 1721815)

Crude oil soared to very high levels since it closed above the psychological levels at $100, where it reached so far a high of $105.52 which considered to be so high, as many positive factors have provided the commodity with a strong bullish momentum focusing on Iran which halted its oil exports to UK and France.


02/20/12--05:58: Gold Bullion "In Consolidation Phase" as China "Shows Growth is Priority" and Europe Reaches "Time to Deliver" (chan 1721815)

Gold Bullion prices held steady above $1730 per ounce Monday morning in London - in line with where they have spent much of February - while European stocks and commodities gained amid hopes that Greece's second bailout might finally be approved. US markets are closed for a holiday. Silver Bullion prices were also fairly flat this morning around $33.50 per ounce. Earlier on Monday, Gold Bullion prices jumped $14 an ounce in Asian trading after China's central bank eased its monetary policy stance over the weekend.


02/21/12--01:38: Greece Secures The Second Financial Aid, Gold Record More Gains (chan 1721815)

Greece has finally secured the second bailout package worth 130 billion euros to avoid default previously projected on March 20, raising optimism in the market and spreading relief across the board. However, investors are still weighing the Greek debt deal and the possibility that Greece may not be able to commit and implement the required reforms in the right time and therefore markets are split now whether the nation will handle the debt and cut the deficit or it will not reduce the deficit and the economy will remain weak in 2020 with 160% debt-to-GDP ratio.


02/21/12--01:39: Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market (chan 1721815)

Crude oil rose significantly in the past day reaching so high levels as many positive factors are providing the commodity with an upside momentum, as it benefitted yesterday from optimism wave in Europe after finance ministers approved to give Greece 130 billion Euros, along with the effect from Iran which considering to cut more oil exports to EU.


02/21/12--06:14: Greek Default Risk "Will Keep Coming Back" Despite Deal, Gold Bullion Trading Rises in London but India Gold Imports May Fall (chan 1721815)

Gold Bullion prices jumped to $1747 per ounce Tuesday lunchtime in London - 1.3% above last week's close - as US Markets opened for the first time since Friday to the news that European leaders have reached an agreement on Greece. Silver Bullion also spiked, hitting $33.97 per ounce - 1.9% up on the start of the week. European stock markets by contrast drifted lower in Tuesday morning trading, while the Euro gave back most of the gains it made against the Dollar immediately after the Greek deal was announced. Commodities edged higher, while US Treasuries fell.


02/21/12--06:15: Panic Attack (chan 1721815)

Oil prices surged on what can be best described as a panic attack. Oil prices surged as reports that an attack on Iran may be imminent or if you prefer, on reports that Iran cut off oil supply to Europe. Either way it caused the market to price in some scary scenarios as European and Asian buyers continued their panic crude oil buying.


02/22/12--00:17: Gold Trades Within Narrow Levels, Platinum And Palladium Advance On Industrial-Demand Forecast (chan 1721815)

Precious metals advanced sharply yesterday as investors tend to hold more metals against the high level of uncertainty, where investors were still weighing the Greek second bailout package and the private sector involvement in the deal along with the unclear European Central Bank role in fighting back the debt crisis.


02/22/12--00:32: Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market (chan 1721815)

Crude oil rose to significant highs amid concerns on global oil supplies where it reached to the highest for more than 7 consecutive months, as the IEA announced that talks with Iran on its nuclear program have reached a failure, which increased the possibilities of a military intervention.


02/22/12--05:20: So Much for the Olive Branch (chan 1721815)

The odds of conflict with Iran continue to rise as it appear talks that could be the last chance to stop events from spinning out of control seem to be dead on arrival. Oil prices which really looked beyond the symbolic Iranian cut of oil to the UK and France, seemed to start to focus a bit more on latest deal to save Greece and a surging stock market. Yet oil already up got another dollar spike when Bloomberg News reported that Iran’s foreign Minister basically said that talks about Iran’s nuclear program were off the table. Many had hoped that the resumption of talks between the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran was a possible way out of this crisis. Those dreams were seemingly put to rest when a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry Ramin Mehmanparast, said that when it comes to Iran’s “right to peaceful nuclear energy there is nothing to negotiate.” So much for the olive branch, it seems the tree just fell down.


02/22/12--05:54: Gold Prices "At Risk from New Greek Crisis", Bank of England "Leaves Door Open" for More QE, "Stay Long Gold" says Goldman Sachs (chan 1721815)

Gold Prices hovered just below $1760 per ounce during London's Wednesday morning trading, after a rally in Tuesday's US session saw gold gain 1.3%. Silver Prices softened slightly but held above $34 per ounce - having through that level on Tuesday following the Greek bailout announcement. Stocks and commodities edged lower this morning, while government bond prices gained. Gold Prices "[ran] into sell stops at the $1760 level," says one gold dealer here in London.


02/23/12--00:17: Gold Takes Breather After Touching Three-Month High (chan 1721815)

Gold takes a breather on Thursday trading after rising to three-month high on Wednesday on expected further monetary easing by the Chinese government to bolster growth. Data released yesterday showed that Chinese manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth straight month, raising expectations monetary easing policies would continue. In the euro area, manufacturing and services activities showed a contraction in February as PMI composite advanced reading for February came in at 49.7 from the prior expansion of 50.5.


02/23/12--01:04: Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market (chan 1721815)

Crude oil continued to trade within very high levels amid concerns and fears over global supplies as tensions increased between Iran and the west after the country blocked IAEA’s attempts to explore the nuclear base which countered the effect of negative signs on Euro zone economy yesterday on contracting manufacturing and services.


02/23/12--06:00: Oil Prepares for War (chan 1721815)

We can point to many reasons why oil may have rallied over recent weeks but none so compelling and disturbing as the possible path to war. Now some may call this “speculation” but the reality is the risk of war is rising and the risk to oil supply is too. This is just not a fear play, though there is defiantly fear involved with Europe declaring an oil embargo on Iran and Iran putting an embargo on exports to France and the UK. The main reason oil is preparing for war is Iran's refusal to talk about its nuclear weapons program so the odds of conflict continue to rise. Countries across the globe, mainly in Europe and Asia, are making purchases of oil to put away for the day that oil from Iran may no longer flow.


02/23/12--06:29: Gold Trading at 3-Month High on Options Expiry, "Light Asian Selling", as Crude Oil Breaks Euro-Record (chan 1721815)

PRECIOUS METALS rose across the board Thursday morning, extending yesterday's sharp jump in New York trade, with Gold Trading at its highest Dollar price since mid-November. The quantity of physical gold held to back the $70 billion SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) last night remained unchanged, however, from both Wednesday morning and a week ago. Today marks expiry for March options on US Gold Futures, with the bulk of interest between $1750 and $1800 per ounce.